The empire strikes back

In the attack on Dnipro, Russia test-launched the Oreshnik, which Putin described as a “cutting-edge medium-range system” equipped with a ballistic missile that carried a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead.

Earlier on Thursday the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia had struck Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a claim disputed by an unnamed US official in a comment to Reuters who said Moscow had in fact launched a medium-range ballistic missile.

The main difference between an ICBM and a medium-range missile is the distance it can reach, as ICBMs can reach targets as far away as 5,500 km or even further, while medium-range missiles are equipped to hit targets at shorter distances.

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told the BBC on Thursday that the missile described by Putin likely has a range of between 3,000 and 5,500 km, meaning it cannot be classified as an ICBM.

“People I know who live in Dnipro told me they had never seen anything like that in this war,” former Ukrainian Security Service analyst and military expert Ivan Stupak told Novaya Gazeta Europe. “They said they thought a nuclear bomb had hit. A terrible blaze of light. The sky parted, and then came a deadly hail of ground-penetrating warheads,” Stupak said, adding that to his knowledge, the missile had split into 36 parts.

The video of the strike clearly shows that the missile had a separable warhead that splits into several pieces, Israeli military expert David Sharp agreed, noting that it was likely that some of the units flying towards the target were real, and some were “decoys designed to draw off air defence systems”.

The missile likely hit “a purely military target” — the Yuzhmash plant, which could be producing missiles for Ukraine, Sharp said. “We don’t know for sure, but Russians appear to believe that.” Another likely reason for using a ballistic missile was “to test a relatively new weapon”, Sharp noted.

According to Stupak, the Yuzhmash plant, which used to produce the Satan, one of the deadliest missiles developed by the Soviet Union, is “a city within a city” that has been targeted by Russian missiles several times since the start of the full-scale invasion.

It is possible that Ukraine produces domestically-made missiles at Yuzhmash, as recent statements by Ukrainian officials suggested that Kyiv had produced up to 100 ballistic missiles, and is planning to make at least 3,000 more, Stupak continued.

The plant is equipped with underground facilities that can only be destroyed with heavy weaponry, but judging by the fact there had been no subsequent explosions, Russia had failed to hit any underground targets, Stupak noted.

A key reason behind the strike appears to be to send a message to the West, Sharp argued. “Clearly, an ICBM, or even a medium-range missile — and a very expensive one at that — is directly associated with nuclear weapons,” Sharp explained. The Kremlin “is taking another step” within its overall strategy of intimidation directed at Kyiv and its Western allies. “It is as if Moscow is saying to the West: look, we have a missile that can accurately strike with both conventional and unconventional warheads,” Sharp continued.

“Using a missile of such power was retaliation for Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russia,” Stupak assumed, calling it “a show of desperation”.

“The Kremlin has nothing else to scare Ukraine and its allies with,” Stupak said.

However, if Russia chooses to continue barraging Ukraine with ballistic missiles of this range, Kyiv will be unable to shoot them down with its existing air defence units, experts agreed.

Only American THAAD and Aegis systems or Israeli Hetz systems can intercept ballistic missiles of this range, David Gendelman, an Israeli military expert, said, adding that while the US-made Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile defence system could theoretically target a medium-range missile, it is normally designed to hit shorter-range missiles.