Heir apparent

The 21st Congress of the ruling United Russia party, held in Moscow in December to rubber-stamp incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin’s candidacy for a fifth term in office, seemed no different from previous congresses, except in one way: one of the keynote speakers came from Chechnya, but it wasn’t Ramzan Kadyrov.

Dressed in a plain military jacket, well-fitting green beret and wearing a neat beard, Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen volunteer unit Akhmat, oozed confidence on a stage Putin himself had just spoken on.

Alaudinov, who earned a Hero of Russia star in the Ukrainian trenches, spoke concisely, without notes, in almost unaccented Russian. He smiled throughout, his speech a far cry from the aggressive tone of other Kadyrovites, seemingly to come across as a “civilised” and “good” Chechen. Alaudinov used the word “god” five times throughout his speech. “Allah” he said once.

Alaudinov’s career has taken off after this appearance, with him graduating from the Russian General Staff Academy in February and earning a coveted job at the Defence Ministry in April despite having had no ties to the Russian army in the past.

After successfully negotiating the transfer of what was left of the Wagner Group to the Akhmat special forces, announced by Kadyrov in early April, Alaudinov was appointed deputy at the Main Directorate for Military and Political Work at the Defence Ministry by Putin himself.

Putin’s order could serve as confirmation that the Kremlin has finally settled on a successor to Kadyrov, whose health has been the main news from Chechnya over the past year.

First reports of illness

When doctors first diagnosed pancreatic necrosis, a serious complication of acute pancreatitis, in Kadyrov in January 2019, he didn’t hide the fact that he was “temporarily unable to work” and that the time off was due to health problems.

Anonymous Telegram channel SKFO Telegraph even alleged that Kadyrov had been poisoned, a report that was promptly refuted by a Kadyrov aide, Akhmed Dudaev.

In 2019, few people paid too much attention to how much weight Kadyrov had lost, but that rapid weight loss was in fact the first symptom of pancreatic necrosis, an extremely serious, painful and hard-to-treat disease which is often fatal, for which Kadyrov began regular treatment at the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital the same year.

Kadyrov’s health began to deteriorate rapidly in the spring of 2022, though this only became front-page news the following year. Even the least attentive observer could see that due to kidney failure and fluid in the lungs, Kadyrov had ballooned to one and a half times his original size. He showed all the signs of the abnormal build-up of fluid in the abdomen, suffered terrible shortness of breath, had difficulty talking, walked slowly and was overdressed for the Chechen climate.

Most importantly of all, Kadyrov was absent from his public duties at the most inopportune moments. But his busy schedule, along with media suspicion bordering on mania, meant he couldn’t receive the long-term treatment he needed either. An all-too-predictable crisis then struck in September.

‘Neither alive nor dead’

Another anonymous Chechen Telegram channel, NIYSO, was the first to report that Kadyrov was in a coma in the intensive care unit of the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital, information that was presumably leaked by someone in Kadyrov’s entourage.

Novaya Europe’s sources have confirmed that Kadyrov was hospitalised with acute pulmonary failure in September due to an overdose of the sedative Dormicum, which he may have used to treat chronic pain, insomnia and anxiety.

Misuse of the medication can lead to respiratory failure, which, according to Novaya Europe’s sources, was the case with Kadyrov.

Kadyrov was hooked up to a ventilator and placed in a medically induced coma to stabilise his breathing. This was how rumours of Kadyrov being in a coma arose, although at that time, due to the highly professional treatment he was receiving, his life was not in danger.

Countering the rumours was difficult as Kadyrov was unable to return home quickly, and so another explanation was given for his time in hospital. On 20 September, a video appeared on social media of Kadyrov visiting his uncle Magomed in hospital. The head of Chechnya says nothing in the video and barely moves. His closest associates, Adam Delimkhanov and Bekkhan Taymaskhanov, speak instead.

Kadyrov had never been away from Chechnya for so long since gaining office. When he finally reappeared in a news report about the opening of a new mosque, Magomed Kadyrov was there too, looking the very picture of health, and not at all like he’d been dying in hospital just a couple of weeks earlier. Ramzan Kadyrov, by contrast, could hardly move his legs, looked significantly older and not at all well.

While doctors managed to stabilise Kadyrov’s condition in September, Novaya Europe’s source at the hospital said that Kadyrov’s MRI results caused distress among many in his inner circle.

A source close to Delimkhanov said that Kadyrov “wouldn’t be the same”, that the new illness would “affect him greatly”. Even if he recovered, he would be “neither alive nor dead”, the source added.

Cover-up operation

Following the September health scare, the Kremlin launched a massive PR campaign to show Kadyrov in good health. It involved top Russian politicians, including the president squeezing meetings with the Chechen leader’s eldest son, Akhmat, and then with Kadyrov senior himself into his schedule.

The reasons behind the meetings were both far-fetched and unnecessary given the state of Kadyrov, who was barely able to read out a report. And sometimes they met for nothing more than a photo op which Kadyrov would post on Telegram whenever he disappeared from the public eye again.

But the most brilliant PR stunt was the resuscitation of the forgotten story of Volgograd native Nikita Zhuravel, accused of burning the Quran at the behest of the Ukrainian secret services and insulting the religious feelings of Russian Muslims.

The case was transferred to Chechnya, outside its investigative jurisdiction, by Alexander Bastrykin, the Chairman of the Investigative Committee, personally. Zhuravel was duly transferred to pretrial detention in Grozny, where he was beaten up by Kadyrov’s son Adam in early August last year.

Federal PR experts and the presidential administration advised Kadyrov to publish the video footage of the beating in order to finally take attention away from the subject of his health. At the same time, Adam Kadyrov was showered with awards and honorary titles as Islam’s chief defender in Russia.

Chechnya’s PR experts did their best too. When Kadyrov returned to Chechnya at the end of September, there was a veritable marathon of visits, openings, ribbon-cutting and award ceremonies after a month of silence.

While Kadyrov’s aide Akhmed Dudaev called his tour de force “the best answer to gossips and provocateurs of all stripes”, Kadyrov’s health condition remains a huge political risk for the Kremlin, now forced to work on a scenario in case power in Chechnya suddenly has to change hands.