The art of the deal
It’s still unclear if Moscow or Kyiv will accept any vision Donald Trump has for peace in Ukraine
We are now well beyond the 24 hours that Donald Trump had promised it would take him to secure an end to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. But Trump’s first week since his inauguration on January 20 has nonetheless been a busy one regarding Ukraine.
Trump’s threat of sanctions against Russia is likely an indication of some level of frustration on the part of the US president that Putin seems less amenable to cutting a deal.
While a ceasefire, at some point, may be in the interest of both Russia and Ukraine, a sustainable peace is much more difficult to achieve.
Ukraine may not be in a position to launch a major offensive but could continue to keep costs for Russia high. On the battlefield, these costs are estimated at 102 casualties per square kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured. Beyond the frontlines, Ukraine has also continued its drone campaign against targets inside Russia, especially the country’s oil infrastructure.
This is not to say that Trump is going to fail in his efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine. But there is a big difference between a ceasefire and a sustainable peace agreement. And while a ceasefire, at some point, may be in the interest of both Russia and Ukraine, a sustainable peace is much more difficult to achieve.
Putin’s vision of total victory is as much an obstacle here as Western reluctance to provide credible security guarantees for Ukraine.
The two options most regularly raised: NATO membership for Ukraine or a Western-led peacekeeping force that could act as a credible deterrent, both appear unrealistic at this point. It is certainly inconceivable that Europe could muster the 200,000 troops that Zelensky envisaged as a deployment in Ukraine to guarantee any deal with Putin. But a smaller force, led by the UK and France, might be possible.
Kyiv and Moscow continue to be locked in a war of attrition and neither Putin nor Zelensky have blinked so far. It is not clear yet whether, and in which direction, Trump will tilt the balance and how this will affect either side’s willingness to submit to his deal-making efforts.
So far, Trump’s moves are not a game changer. But this is the first serious attempt in nearly three years of war to forge a path towards an end to the fighting. It remains to be seen whether Trump, and everyone else, has the imagination and stamina to ensure that this path will ultimately lead to a just and secure peace for Ukraine.
