Ukraine’s Defence Minister: Russian troops may launch new offensive before invasion’s anniversary

The Russian military might start a new offensive in Ukraine’s east and south before the invasion’s anniversary on 24 February, says Oleksiy Reznikov, the Ukrainian Defence Minister, in an interview with BFMTV.

“We cannot afford to lose the initiative. Assuming that the Russians care much about symbolism, they might try and do something before 24 February. We do not underestimate our enemy,” he said.

Reznikov also spoke of “500,000 Russian draftees”. “They officially declared drafting 300,000, but from what we see on our borders, we evaluate this figure to be significantly higher,” he said.

Reznikov believes Russia’s Armed Forces may “execute an offensive in two directions, either in the Donbas or in the south”.

Oleksiy Danylov, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, said on 28 January that the Russian military was preparing for “a new wave” scheduled to finish before 24 February to “have at least some achievements” after exactly one year of the Ukraine War. He believes that Russia is aiming to take full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The US based Institute for the Study of War reported the same day that Vladimir Putin was hoping to regain the initiative in the Ukraine War and prepared a new offensive that may begin as early as February or March 2023.