ISW: Russia likely lacking reserves to mount offensive in Ukraine’s Luhansk region

According to the ISW analysts, Russian conventional ground forces are traditionally deployed and fight as part of “normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures” as can be observed now. Moreover, the experts discovered that a few critical tank units are missing which points to the fact that the previously lost equipment needs to be replaced.

Russia’s tank losses amount “to the equivalent of around 16 tank regiments” which likely impedes the Kremlin’s ability to rapidly reconstitute its tank units, the ISW notes, citing assessments of Dutch and British analysts.

The institute reports that the Russian forces “operating in and near the Luhansk Oblast frontline are drawn almost entirely from the Western Military District (WMD) with a few reinforcements from other force groupings”. However, the Russian army lacks time to train draftees and equipment to kit out new units. In light of this, the 3rd and 144th motorised rifle divisions attacking on the Luhansk region axis have “made relatively few gains since the offensive began”.

According to the analysts, the deployment plan on other axes shows that “strongly suggests that most of the available manoeuvre elements of the other military districts and the Airborne Forces are already committed” and “do not constitute a large reserve that Moscow could suddenly hurl into the fray” in the Luhansk region or elsewhere.

In its morning bulletin, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian army continues to focus its efforts on the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Shakhtarsk axes.