ISW: Kremlin looking to ‘publicly discredit’ Yevgeny Prigozhin, unlikely to happen while PMC Wagner still fighting
The Russian Presidential Administration is preparing an information operation to publicly discredit Yevgeny Prigozhin of PMC Wagner, although it is unlikely to start while Wagner troops are still fighting on the front line in Ukraine, the US-based Institute for the Study of War reports, citing sources in the Kremlin.
The Kremlin likely suspects or is aware of Prigozhin’s reported communications with Ukrainian intelligence and likely was not blindsided by The Washington Post report or the leaked US intelligence documents that reveal how Prigozhin offered Ukraine to reveal location data of Russian troops in exchange for Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.
The Kremlin is likely preparing mechanisms to discredit Prigozhin as a traitor, ISW says. Russian officials had reportedly threatened Prigozhin with treason if he were to act on his attempt to blackmail the MoD into providing him more ammunition by threatening to withdraw from Bakhmut.
Prigozhin commands the Wagner forces in east Ukraine, and his removal would disrupt the Russian lines in Bakhmut — a risk that Putin is unlikely to take, ISW says. The Kremlin is also unable to publicly remove and replace Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the Russian government.
“Removing Prigozhin from his control of Wagner would ironically require asserting direct Kremlin control of the mercenary group from which Putin has been at pains to maintain formal distance,” the ISW experts say.
The Washington Post revealed on Sunday, citing the US Discord intel leak, that Yevgeny Prigozhin met the Ukrainian intelligence in late January 2023 and offered them to reveal location data of Russian troops in exchange for Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut.
The leaked document does not make clear which Russian troop positions Prigozhin offered to disclose.
Prigozhin is still an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who “might well regard Prigozhin’s offer to trade the lives of Wagner fighters for Russian soldiers as a treasonous betrayal”, WP says.
Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR, several times. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous, according to WP.
