Russian Interior Ministry forecasts largest spike in violent crime in 15 years

The Russian Interior Ministry has forecast that the number of serious crimes committed in Russia may reach 152,000 in 2024, the highest figure in over 15 years according to independent media outlet Verstka on Wednesday.

In 2022 the department predicted the number of serious crimes would increase to 133,000 in 2023, though the actual figure turned out to be far higher at 142,000, Verstka wrote.

It also said that the number of serious crimes committed by immigrants had increased by a third since the previous year, while the number of serious crimes committed by organised crime groups rose by 18% over the same period.

Researchers believe that 2024 will see an increase in sabotage, drug-related crime, terrorism, extremism and property crime. They also expect an increase in very serious crime committed by organised crime groups and in crime relating to interethnic conflict.

An increase in black market weapons, veterans returning from the war in Ukraine, poverty and indebtedness, high levels of alcoholism, terrorism, extremism, illegal migration and inflation were just some of the factors that could also adversely affect the crime rate, they said.

They said benefit payments, countering terrorism and illegal migration and other similar measures could contribute to a reduction in crime.

Since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, Russian soldiers returning home have been convicted of more than 2,500 crimes. In over half of those cases, however, veterans were given lighter than average sentences after their “participation in the special military operation” was taken into account by the court.