Friends ‘un-united’
Trump’s desire to drive a wedge between Russia and China could well backfire
In an October interview with right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson, US President Donald Trump argued that the United States under Joe Biden had, in his mind erroneously, pushed China and Russia together. Separating the two powers would be a priority of his administration. “I’m going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too,” Trump said.
Many in Beijing view Trump’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine war — and his foreign policy more broadly — as a projection of weakness, not strength.
Both China and Russia have, in recent years, adopted an increasingly assertive stance in projecting military strength: China in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, and Russia in former Soviet satellite states, including Ukraine.
In response, a unified stance formed by Western governments to counter China and Russia’s challenge has merely pushed the two countries closer together.
In February 2022, just as Russia was preparing its invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping announced a “friendship without limits” — in a show of unified intent against the West.
China has since become an indispensable partner for Russia, serving as its top trading partner for both imports and exports. In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Russia reached a record high of $237 billion (€219 billion based on the average exchange rate for 2024), and Russia now relies heavily on China as a key buyer of its oil and gas. This growing economic interdependence gives China considerable leverage over Russia and makes any US attempt to pull Moscow away from Beijing economically unrealistic.
That doesn’t mean the Russian-Chinese relationship is inviolable; areas of disagreement and divergent policy remain.
While Putin would likely gladly accept a Trump-brokered peace deal that sacrifices Ukraine’s interests in favor of Russia, that doesn’t mean he would be rushing to embrace some kind of broader call to unite against China.
While some members of the U.S. administration are undoubtedly hawkish on China — Secretary of State Marco Rubio views the country as the “most potent and dangerous” threat to American prosperity — Trump himself has been more ambivalent. He may have slapped new tariffs on China as part of a renewed trade war, but he has also mulled a meeting with President Xi Jinping in an apparent overture.
Beijing recognises Trump’s transactional mindset, which prioritises short-term, tangible benefits over more predictable long-term strategic interests requiring sustained investment.
This changes the calculation over whether the US may be unwilling to bear the high costs of defending Taiwan. Trump, in a deviation from his predecessor, has failed to commit the country to defending Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.
Rather, Trump had indicated that if the Chinese government were to launch a military campaign to “reunify” Taiwan, he would opt instead for economic measures like tariffs and sanctions. His apparent openness to trade Ukraine territory for peace now has made some in Taiwan concerned over Washington’s commitment to long-established international norms.
China has taken another key lesson from Russia’s experience in Ukraine: The US-led economic sanctions regime has serious limits.
Even under sweeping Western sanctions, Russia was able to stay afloat through subterfuge and with support from allies like China and North Korea. Moreover, China remains far more economically intertwined with the West than Russia, and its relatively dominant global economic position means that it has significant leverage to combat any US-led efforts to isolate the country economically.
As such, Trump’s plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war by favouring Russia in the hope of drawing it into an anti-China coalition is, I believe, likely to backfire.
While Russia may itself harbour concerns about China’s growing power, the two country’s shared strategic goal of challenging the Western-led international order — and Russia’s deep economic dependence on China — make any US attempt to pull Moscow away from Beijing unrealistic.
Moreover, Trump’s approach exposes vulnerabilities that China could exploit. His transactional and isolationist foreign policy, along with his encouragement of right-wing parties in Europe, may strain relations with European Union allies and weaken trust in American security commitments. Beijing, in turn, may view this as a sign of declining US influence, giving China more room to manoeuvre, noticeably in regard to Taiwan.
Rather than increasing the chances of a Sino-Russia split, such a shift could instead divide an already fragile Western coalition.
